Phase 2 · Day 8

2026-10-08T20:07+09:00

• company — continue
  FACT: Day 8/31. Gross ¥0, cost ¥0, net ¥0, 0 orders, 0 replies company-wide. Stripe livemode 0 charges / 0 payment_intents (direct MCP read this fire). Coconala 0 buyer reply on 5 proposals (last inbox 09:03 JST; evening 18:00/19:00 scans not yet run by mac-local). X 0 profile_clicks/0 inquiries. G2 (¥10k gross + net>0 by 10/20) 13 days out.
  INTERPRETATION: G2 gap unchanged on market response (still 0 revenue signals). But H1's L3 CrowdWorks bet STRENGTHENED on the supply dimension (1,142 listings / 2 GO day-1 vs Coconala ~67/1 over 7 days) — the request-board model fits the proposal motion far better than Coconala 公開依頼. The binding constraint MOVED from channel/audience-fit (now largely resolved by CrowdWorks) to a runtime-permission block on sends plus an unproven reply rate.
  NEXT: Reallocate to CrowdWorks as the primary supply engine under the price_plus_reply selection rule (STATE updated this fire). Unblock CrowdWorks sends via owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission (surfaced to OWNER_ACTION_REQUIRED top this fire). mac-local sends the 2 GO drafts first, then scans daily selecting ¥10-15k early-applicant jobs + free sample.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-13: >=10 CrowdWorks proposals reach buyers with 0 replies in the board's first 5 days -> kill the board. 2026-10-15: no order anywhere -> H1 revenue bet dead for October. 2026-10-20: G2 deadline.
• x — stop
  FACT: 小ネタ①–④ median imp 10 (12/9/11/7), profile_clicks 0, CTA link clicks 0, inquiries 0; all 13 posts 0 profile_clicks / 0 external replies in 8 days.
  INTERPRETATION: H2 WEAKENED to falsified as a revenue hypothesis: the 10/04 re-aim did not move profile_clicks (0->0); reach (not angle) is binding on a small-follower account. The pre-registered 10/08 X trigger fired exactly.
  NEXT: Demote X from revenue bet to trust/log only (STATE x_lane + hypotheses H2 updated). Keep the daily Day-N numbers post (credibility, cron, ~0 cost). Author+queue 小ネタ⑤ for 10/09 WITH 1-2 buyer-searched JP hashtags (pre-registered reach test; ①-④ as control) — executed this fire.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-11: if 小ネタ⑤-⑥ (hashtagged) still median imp <20 -> stop the automation-tips series too, keep only the Day-N numbers post.
• coconala_proposals — continue
  FACT: 5 proposals sent (3k/8k/8k/10k/30k), 0 replies, 0 consultations; request 5303405 still pending. Supply ~1 well-fit GO per several days (67+ screened, 1 GO in 7 days).
  INTERPRETATION: H1 unchanged on reply signal (still 0) but Coconala's structural supply weakness CONFIRMED — the pool is too thin and creative/anti-AI-skewed to supply the price_plus_reply volume G2 needs.
  NEXT: Keep the widened Coconala lane at <=5/day combined with CrowdWorks, now under the price_plus_reply selection (¥10-15k, early applicant, free sample). Answer any reply <=12h under PG-1. Do not pre-build delivery before a reply (Art.5.5).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-12: >=10 proposals on the widened Coconala lane reach buyers with 0 replies -> stop proposing on Coconala (keep listing live).
• coconala_listing — shrink
  FACT: H3 passive listing: 0 inquiries, 0 favorites, 0 messages since the 10/03 logged-in baseline (30d views 8, mostly Sept). No fresh snapshot this fire (mac-local evening scan not yet run).
  INTERPRETATION: H3 unchanged (weak): passive listing produces no demand signal; the 10/08 trigger (<5 new views & 0 inquiries since 10/03) is met on the inquiry side.
  NEXT: Stop active H3 listing work (already shrunk); keep the listing live at zero cost. Any inquiry is answered <=12h (H1-grade demand).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: H3 revenue_deadline — still 0 inquiry -> no further listing work at all; keep live.
• booth — shrink
  FACT: BOOTH 8919052: 0 sales, 0 スキ, 0 messages (10/03 baseline, no change).
  INTERPRETATION: H3/H4 unchanged (weak): passive BOOTH listing produces no signal.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no listing work.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: still 0 スキ/sales -> mark stopped.
• stripe_gumroad — shrink
  FACT: Stripe livemode 0 charges / 0 payment_intents (direct read this fire). Gumroad 0 sales. Sept diagnosis stands: 3 checkout sessions, all expired/unpaid, 0 payment_intents -> every buyer left before payment.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged (weak): generic $19 hosted store is a dead funnel; a rebuild is negative-EV vs H1.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no rebuild. Founder re-reads Stripe each fire for the first charge (Art.10).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: any charge/PI appears -> act end-to-end immediately (Art.10); else leave as zero-cost supply.
• note — stop
  FACT: note article #1 PV 5 (<<30), 0 comments, 0 isolable follows. New articles STOPPED 2026-10-07 (trigger applied early).
  INTERPRETATION: H2 weakened: long-form note does not pull the H1 buyer audience at this reach.
  NEXT: No new note articles in October; keep article #1 live (zero cost).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: revisit only if an X/note reach signal appears (none expected).
• zenn — continue
  FACT: Paid book gas-ai-jimu-plus-6 HTTP 200 (verify-url run 37331481015), in JP funnel (store/jp.html). 0 sales. Free articles live.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged: zero-cost supply, no pull yet.
  NEXT: Keep live as zero-cost supply; no work until a sale.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: review at the next weekly review, or act immediately on any sale.
• etsy — shrink
  FACT: Etsy 13 listings, 0 orders, 0 signals.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged (weak): passive listings, no demand signal.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no listing work.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: any order -> act; else leave as zero-cost supply.
• crowdworks_proposals — expand
  FACT: First CrowdWorks scan (10/08 13:26 JST, dedicated profile, logged in): 1,142 listings pulled, ~25 fit, 11 read, 2 GO (13513659 PDF->Word ¥15k apply-by 10/10; 13513520 drama classification ¥8k apply-by 10/12). 0 sent — the Mac's Claude Code auto-mode classifier blocked typing into the 応募 form ('Unrequested Commit in a Connected App'), a runtime boundary mac-local must not bypass. owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission filed.
  INTERPRETATION: H1's L3 CrowdWorks bet VALIDATED on supply (far better fit/volume than Coconala). The binding constraint is now a runtime-permission block on sends, not supply — exactly the kind of capability boundary Art.5.6 routes, here genuinely to the owner (their Mac Claude settings).
  NEXT: Primary supply engine for H1. Surface owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission to OWNER_ACTION_REQUIRED top (done this fire): owner either pastes the 2 drafts (~5 min) or whitelists unattended CrowdWorks submission (then every future proposal goes out under PG-1 conditions). On unblock, mac-local sends the 2 GO then scans daily under the price_plus_reply selection.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-13: >=10 CrowdWorks proposals reach buyers with 0 replies in the first 5 days -> kill the board; if BOTH boards hit 0 replies at fair volume -> proposal motion falsified, pivot L4.

2026-10-08T20:07+09:00

• company — continue
  FACT: Day 8/31. Gross ¥0, cost ¥0, net ¥0, 0 orders, 0 replies company-wide. Stripe livemode 0 charges / 0 payment_intents (direct MCP read this fire). Coconala 0 buyer reply on 5 proposals (last inbox 09:03 JST; evening 18:00/19:00 scans not yet run by mac-local). X 0 profile_clicks/0 inquiries. G2 (¥10k gross + net>0 by 10/20) 13 days out.
  INTERPRETATION: G2 gap unchanged on market response (still 0 revenue signals). But H1's L3 CrowdWorks bet STRENGTHENED on the supply dimension (1,142 listings / 2 GO day-1 vs Coconala ~67/1 over 7 days) — the request-board model fits the proposal motion far better than Coconala 公開依頼. The binding constraint MOVED from channel/audience-fit (now largely resolved by CrowdWorks) to a runtime-permission block on sends plus an unproven reply rate.
  NEXT: Reallocate to CrowdWorks as the primary supply engine under the price_plus_reply selection rule (STATE updated this fire). Unblock CrowdWorks sends via owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission (surfaced to OWNER_ACTION_REQUIRED top this fire). mac-local sends the 2 GO drafts first, then scans daily selecting ¥10-15k early-applicant jobs + free sample.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-13: >=10 CrowdWorks proposals reach buyers with 0 replies in the board's first 5 days -> kill the board. 2026-10-15: no order anywhere -> H1 revenue bet dead for October. 2026-10-20: G2 deadline.
• x — stop
  FACT: 小ネタ①–④ median imp 10 (12/9/11/7), profile_clicks 0, CTA link clicks 0, inquiries 0; all 13 posts 0 profile_clicks / 0 external replies in 8 days.
  INTERPRETATION: H2 WEAKENED to falsified as a revenue hypothesis: the 10/04 re-aim did not move profile_clicks (0->0); reach (not angle) is binding on a small-follower account. The pre-registered 10/08 X trigger fired exactly.
  NEXT: Demote X from revenue bet to trust/log only (STATE x_lane + hypotheses H2 updated). Keep the daily Day-N numbers post (credibility, cron, ~0 cost). Author+queue 小ネタ⑤ for 10/09 WITH 1-2 buyer-searched JP hashtags (pre-registered reach test; ①-④ as control) — executed this fire.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-11: if 小ネタ⑤-⑥ (hashtagged) still median imp <20 -> stop the automation-tips series too, keep only the Day-N numbers post.
• coconala_proposals — continue
  FACT: 5 proposals sent (3k/8k/8k/10k/30k), 0 replies, 0 consultations; request 5303405 still pending. Supply ~1 well-fit GO per several days (67+ screened, 1 GO in 7 days).
  INTERPRETATION: H1 unchanged on reply signal (still 0) but Coconala's structural supply weakness CONFIRMED — the pool is too thin and creative/anti-AI-skewed to supply the price_plus_reply volume G2 needs.
  NEXT: Keep the widened Coconala lane at <=5/day combined with CrowdWorks, now under the price_plus_reply selection (¥10-15k, early applicant, free sample). Answer any reply <=12h under PG-1. Do not pre-build delivery before a reply (Art.5.5).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-12: >=10 proposals on the widened Coconala lane reach buyers with 0 replies -> stop proposing on Coconala (keep listing live).
• coconala_listing — shrink
  FACT: H3 passive listing: 0 inquiries, 0 favorites, 0 messages since the 10/03 logged-in baseline (30d views 8, mostly Sept). No fresh snapshot this fire (mac-local evening scan not yet run).
  INTERPRETATION: H3 unchanged (weak): passive listing produces no demand signal; the 10/08 trigger (<5 new views & 0 inquiries since 10/03) is met on the inquiry side.
  NEXT: Stop active H3 listing work (already shrunk); keep the listing live at zero cost. Any inquiry is answered <=12h (H1-grade demand).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: H3 revenue_deadline — still 0 inquiry -> no further listing work at all; keep live.
• booth — shrink
  FACT: BOOTH 8919052: 0 sales, 0 スキ, 0 messages (10/03 baseline, no change).
  INTERPRETATION: H3/H4 unchanged (weak): passive BOOTH listing produces no signal.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no listing work.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: still 0 スキ/sales -> mark stopped.
• stripe_gumroad — shrink
  FACT: Stripe livemode 0 charges / 0 payment_intents (direct read this fire). Gumroad 0 sales. Sept diagnosis stands: 3 checkout sessions, all expired/unpaid, 0 payment_intents -> every buyer left before payment.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged (weak): generic $19 hosted store is a dead funnel; a rebuild is negative-EV vs H1.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no rebuild. Founder re-reads Stripe each fire for the first charge (Art.10).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: any charge/PI appears -> act end-to-end immediately (Art.10); else leave as zero-cost supply.
• note — stop
  FACT: note article #1 PV 5 (<<30), 0 comments, 0 isolable follows. New articles STOPPED 2026-10-07 (trigger applied early).
  INTERPRETATION: H2 weakened: long-form note does not pull the H1 buyer audience at this reach.
  NEXT: No new note articles in October; keep article #1 live (zero cost).
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: revisit only if an X/note reach signal appears (none expected).
• zenn — continue
  FACT: Paid book gas-ai-jimu-plus-6 HTTP 200 (verify-url run 37331481015), in JP funnel (store/jp.html). 0 sales. Free articles live.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged: zero-cost supply, no pull yet.
  NEXT: Keep live as zero-cost supply; no work until a sale.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-15: review at the next weekly review, or act immediately on any sale.
• etsy — shrink
  FACT: Etsy 13 listings, 0 orders, 0 signals.
  INTERPRETATION: H4 unchanged (weak): passive listings, no demand signal.
  NEXT: Keep live, zero effort; no listing work.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-31: any order -> act; else leave as zero-cost supply.
• crowdworks_proposals — expand
  FACT: First CrowdWorks scan (10/08 13:26 JST, dedicated profile, logged in): 1,142 listings pulled, ~25 fit, 11 read, 2 GO (13513659 PDF->Word ¥15k apply-by 10/10; 13513520 drama classification ¥8k apply-by 10/12). 0 sent — the Mac's Claude Code auto-mode classifier blocked typing into the 応募 form ('Unrequested Commit in a Connected App'), a runtime boundary mac-local must not bypass. owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission filed.
  INTERPRETATION: H1's L3 CrowdWorks bet VALIDATED on supply (far better fit/volume than Coconala). The binding constraint is now a runtime-permission block on sends, not supply — exactly the kind of capability boundary Art.5.6 routes, here genuinely to the owner (their Mac Claude settings).
  NEXT: Primary supply engine for H1. Surface owner-crowdworks-proposal-permission to OWNER_ACTION_REQUIRED top (done this fire): owner either pastes the 2 drafts (~5 min) or whitelists unattended CrowdWorks submission (then every future proposal goes out under PG-1 conditions). On unblock, mac-local sends the 2 GO then scans daily under the price_plus_reply selection.
  DEADLINE/TRIGGER: 2026-10-13: >=10 CrowdWorks proposals reach buyers with 0 replies in the first 5 days -> kill the board; if BOTH boards hit 0 replies at fair volume -> proposal motion falsified, pivot L4.